We’re not even three weeks into the major league baseball season, but already several story lines from a betting perspective have been in play. Low scoring games seem to be the current theme as 105 games have gone UNDER the total, while just 88 have played OVER the total. Cold weather has been the catalyst for the lower scoring trend with many games being played at below average temperatures, especially across the Midwest and East Coast. No question, pitchers hold the advantage with the cooler temperatures as they are the one player on the field that is able to stay warm with constant activity. In addition, we have seen some extreme wind gusts. Games played in windier conditions are conducive for more scoring, but the ball simply does not travel as far when it is cold as has been the case early on. This year many will point to baseball’s more stringent drug testing rules of hitters as being ‘juiced’ down. There may be some validity to that sentiment. In fact, 20 teams feature a team ERA at 4.00 or less, which is a sight not normally seen in recent times.
There are other theories at work as well. Last year, the World Baseball Classic wreaked havoc on pitching staffs across the league early in the season as the pitchers who took part in the Classic fell out of their normal spring training routines. Many suffered injuries that hurt overall pitching depth and forced pitchers that were simply not ready for the every day grind of the major league season into action. This equated to an increase in runs last year.
A handful of teams have really struggled at the dish offensively including St. Louis, Oakland, Chicago White Sox and the Angels. The Angels, A’s and White Sox have trended a combined 30-9 towards the UNDER. The A’s rank dead last in slugging percentage at .329 and there is not a single Oakland player with more than one home run in the early going. To be fair, they have faced above average pitching and this team is well known for their early season struggles.
A slow start by Albert Pujols has hampered the Cardinals, however he’s picked up the pace the last few days. Pujols hasn’t really been the dilemma for the Cardinals however as Jim Edmonds is slugging a paltry .220, while an injury has hampered Scott Rolen as well.
Still, there are teams that are scoring runs or perhaps better stated, allowing runs, and trending OVER the total. Philadelphia, Florida and Tampa Bay have trended OVER the total at a combined 28-11 rate. Coincidence? Probably not as the Devil-Rays and Phillies rank one-two at the bottom of the team ERA standings. Once again, this Tampa Bay franchise simply cannot pitch outside of young-gun Scott Kazmir, while even he’s clambered to a 5.25 ERA. The Devil Rays team ERA stands at a harrowing 6.23 number. The bright side is a young nucleus of position players with sweet upside including Carl Crawford, Elijah Dukes, BJ Upton and Delmon Young.
Few would argue that the Phillies are a complete mess right now, as they look up in the standings at the Washington Nationals. Many penciled in Philadelphia to own one of the best starting pitching staffs in the National League. Brett Myers has been the ringleader for bad pitching with an outrageous 8.82 ERA, and the Phillies brass, in a very questionable move, have since vanquished Myers to the bullpen.
From a side or team perspective, the free spending Chicago Cubs have found themselves stagnant to start the campaign. The Cubs are currently 5-9 on the season down over 6.5 betting units and are once again overvalued by the marketplace. This can happen when a franchise spends over $300 million in the off-season looking to find lightning in a bottle. Of course, as the Cubs have found repeatedly, it’s easier to draw up a contender than to field a contender. It is intriguing seeing as how many of the Cubs additions have played well, with Ted Lilly featuring a 2.37 ERA and Jason Marquis owning a surprising 2.65 figure. Let’s say the jury is still out on the 2007 Cubs. The Cubs may not have had a hot start, but we have seen another NL team emerge as a possible contender early this year.
The Atlanta Braves have regained their swagger after a disappointing 79-83 2006 season. The Braves sit back on top of the National League East with 10-4 record, but show a modest four units of betting profit. When breaking down the Braves the answer for the turnaround is easily found in the bullpen. Last year the relief pitching constantly killed the Braves as they blew a staggering 29 save opportunities. This year the crew has blown just one save while sporting a 4-0 record. Give credit to the Braves decision makers as they brought in live arms from both sides of the mound including Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. In addition, starter Tim Hudson looks to be in his past Oakland form with a minuscule 0.86 ERA in three outings. With their key off-season additions and a strong blend of youth and experience, the Braves looked poised to regain their foothold as the best team in the NL East.
The baseball season is long, 162 games long, and many trends will play out over the upcoming months. What holds true today doesn’t necessarily mean it will hold true tomorrow, but it is interesting to note the wild start to the 2007 campaign.
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